When is Claude 5 Coming? Analyzing the Release Window
Based on training compute estimates and historical release cycles, we predict the launch window for Anthropic's Claude 5.
With Gemini 3 now public, the countdown for Claude 5 has officially begun. But when can we actually expect to use it? We analyzed Anthropic's release history and infrastructure investments to find out.
Historical Timeline
- Claude 2: July 2023
- Claude 3: March 2024
- Claude 3.5: June 2024
- Claude 4 (Series): Early-Mid 2025
The gap between major "integer" releases (e.g., 2 to 3) averages about 8-10 months. However, as models get larger, training runs take longer.
The Compute Factor
Dario Amodei (CEO of Anthropic) has hinted in recent podcasts that the cost of training the next-gen models could reach $10 Billion.
Building a cluster large enough to train a model of this size (likely 100x the parameter count of Claude 3 Opus) takes time. We know that Amazon has poured billions into Anthropic recently specifically for this purpose.
Our Prediction: Q1 2026
We believe Anthropic will not rush Claude 5 to compete directly with Gemini 3's hype cycle in late 2025. Instead, they will likely aim for a Q1 2026 (March) release.
Why?
- Safety First: Anthropic's "Constitutional AI" approach requires longer fine-tuning periods than OpenAI or Google.
- Differentiation: Releasing a few months later allows them to beat Gemini 3's benchmarks decisively, rather than just matching them.
Disclaimer: This is a speculation based on public data. We have no insider information.